Viewing archive of söndag, 21 oktober 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Oct 21 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 295 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 21 Oct 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate for the past 24 hours.
An M1/Sf flare from Region 1598 (S12E70) occurred at 21/2003Z.
This region has shown some development as it has rotated further
onto the visible disk and remains the main area of interest. Region
1596 (N07E33) continues to be the most magnetically complex region
on the visible disk as an Eho/Beta-Gamma spot group, but has shown
slight decay in the trailer spots over the past 24 hours. All other
spots remain relatively stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed over the past 24 hours.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (22-24 October) with isolated M-class flares
likely.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet over the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained steady at
approximately 360 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field showed minor deviations of +/-4 nT. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days 1 and 2 (22-23 October)
due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Conditions are expected to return to quiet levels by day 3 (24
October) as the effects from the CH HSS begin to wane.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 22 Oct till 24 Oct
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 21 Oct 144 Prognoserat 22 Oct-24 Oct 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 21 Oct 120
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 20 Oct 003/001 Förväntat Afr/Ap 21 Oct 004/004 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 22 Oct till 24 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 05% |
Senaste nytt
måndag, 22 april 2024
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X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
onsdag, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
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Rymdvädersfakta
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