Viewing archive of tisdag, 9 oktober 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Oct 09 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 283 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 09 Oct 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. A few C-class events were
observed during the period, most from a region around the southeast
limb that has not yet rotated onto the disk. Three new regions were
numbered today with Region 1589 (N13E75) as the largest and most
active.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare over the next three days
(10-12 October).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the day at active levels before the onset
of two major storm periods (09/00-06Z). This peak activity was then
followed by a minor storm period before mostly quiet conditions
prevailed for the remainder of the period. The increased activity
was the result of residual effects from the CME on 05 October. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on day one (10 October), due to
high speed stream effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
forecast on day two (11 October) and mostly quiet levels are
expected on day three (12 October).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 10 Oct till 12 Oct
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 09 Oct 106 Prognoserat 10 Oct-12 Oct 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 08 Oct 021/040 Förväntat Afr/Ap 09 Oct 024/038 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 012/015-007/008-006/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 10 Oct till 12 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 40% | 20% | 05% |
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