Viewing archive of måndag, 8 oktober 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Oct 08 2235 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 282 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 08 Oct 2012 :::::::::::CORRECTED COPY:::::::::::::::::::IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. A M2 x-ray event occurred
at 08/1117Z from a region that has not yet rotated around the east
limb. Two CMEs were observed by LASCO C2/C3 coming off the east limb
early in the period, however neither are expected to be
geoeffective.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low on day 1 (9 October). Activity is forecast to increase to
low on day 2 (10 October) and low with the a chance for moderate
levels on day 3 (11 October) as the new region emerges around the
east limb.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled levels before the
arrival of the CME from 05 October around 08/0445Z. At that time, a
transient passage was observed at ACE and was then followed by a
subsequent sudden impulse (21nT at Boulder) to Earths magnetic
field at 08/0515Z. Conditions increased to active levels for a sole
period, before major storm levels began and lasted for two periods
(06-12Z). The remainder of the day saw a recovery back to unsettled
and active levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be at minor storm levels (G1) on day 1 (09 October) as
CME effects continue. Days 2 and 3 (10-11 October) are forecast to
be quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active levels
persisting, due to a coronal hole that is expected to move into a
potentially geoeffective position.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 09 Oct till 11 Oct
| M-klass | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 08 Oct 103 Prognoserat 09 Oct-11 Oct 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 07 Oct 004/005 Förväntat Afr/Ap 08 Oct 024/035 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 017/020-007/012-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 09 Oct till 11 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 35% | 25% | 15% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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