Viewing archive of onsdag, 25 juli 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jul 25 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 207 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 Jul 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Slight growth was
observed in Region 1526 (S17W00). The remainder of the disk and
limb was quiet and stable. A relatively slow moving CME
(approximate plane-of-sky speed of 350 km/s) was observed off the
southern limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 25/0236Z.
Correlations with STEREO-A COR2 imagery indicated ejecta movement
was slightly south of the ecliptic plane with a possible
Earth-directed component. This CME was likely the result of a small
filament eruption just south of central disk observed in H-alpha
imagery at approximately 24/2235Z. A preliminary WSA ENLIL model
run of the event indicated a weak impact early on 29 July.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
measured at the ACE spacecraft continued to decline from
approximately 500 km/s to 440 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux at geosynchronous orbit continued to be enhanced around 8 pfu.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days 1 - 2 (26 - 27 July). By mid to
late on day 3 (28 July), a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream
is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position resulting in
unsettled to active conditions.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 Jul till 28 Jul
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 25 Jul 105 Prognoserat 26 Jul-28 Jul 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 25 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 24 Jul 010/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 25 Jul 006/007 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 006/005-006/005-011/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 Jul till 28 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 30% |
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