Viewing archive of torsdag, 28 juni 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Jun 28 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 180 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 28 Jun 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
1513 (N17E45) produced an impulsive M2/1b flare at 28/1612Z along
with occasional B- and C-class flares including a long-duration
C2/Sf at 28/1948Z. Region 1513 showed a minor increase in spot count
and an increase in magnetic complexity (beta-gamma). Region 1512
(S15W02) maintained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration, but
showed little change during the period. This region produced
occasional B- and C-class flares during the period. No new regions
were numbered. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections occurred
during the period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (29 June - 01 July) with a chance for another
M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to (briefly) unsettled
levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (29 June) with
a chance for active levels due to the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed
stream (CH HSS). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled
to active levels during days 2 - 3 (30 June - 01 July) with a chance
for minor storm levels due to CH HSS effects.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 29 Jun till 01 Jul
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 28 Jun 120 Prognoserat 29 Jun-01 Jul 115/115/120 90 Day Mean 28 Jun 118
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 27 Jun 008/007 Förväntat Afr/Ap 28 Jun 007/009 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 009/010-015/018-013/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 29 Jun till 01 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 40% | 35% |
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