Viewing archive of fredag, 13 april 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Apr 13 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 104 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 13 Apr 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1455 (N07W19)
produced occasional B-class x-ray flares. It showed gradual spot and
penumbral growth during the period as well as a mix of polarities in
its intermediate and trailer portions, which indicated a beta-gamma
magnetic structure. New Region 1457 (N22E41) was numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low during days 1 - 3 (14 - 16 April) with a chance for isolated
C-class flares from Region 1455.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels
with a brief period of major storm at high latitudes. The increased
field activity was associated with a persistent coronal hole
high-speed stream (CH HSS). Solar winds speeds gradually increased
during the first half of the period (maximum speed 693 km/s at
13/0846Z), then gradually decreased during the second half of the
period (minimum speed 544 km/s at 13/1941Z).
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (14 -
15 April) with a chance for active levels due to persistent CH HSS
effects. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on
day 3 (16 April) as the CH HSS subsides.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 14 Apr till 16 Apr
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 13 Apr 098 Prognoserat 14 Apr-16 Apr 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 114
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 12 Apr 011/014 Förväntat Afr/Ap 13 Apr 014/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 007/012-010/012-004/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 14 Apr till 16 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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