Viewing archive of torsdag, 12 april 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Apr 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 103 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Apr 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1455 (N06W05) has been the most active region
producing multiple B-class x-ray events. Region 1455 has shown rapid
growth in area and magnetic complexity, now a D-type beta group. New
Region 1456 (S20W19) was numbered today. Multiple CMEs were observed
during the period but none appear to be Earth directed.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class activity for the next
three days (13 - 15 April) as Regions 1455 and 1456 continue to grow
and evolve.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels over the
past 24 hours. Characteristics of an anticipated high speed solar
wind stream from a coronal hole were observed by the ACE spacecraft,
with subsequent elevated geomagnetic levels here at Earth.
Measurements from the ACE spacecraft showed an increase in solar
wind speeds from around 370 km/s to around 600 km/s with the total
IMF hovering around 12 nT.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with the chance for
minor storm periods on day one (13 April) as the effects of a
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) continue. Quiet to unsettled
levels with a chance for active periods are expected on day two (14
April) as the effects of the CH HSS wane. Predominantly quiet levels
are expected on day three (15 April) as the geomagnetic field
returns to nominal levels.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Apr till 15 Apr
| M-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 Apr 095 Prognoserat 13 Apr-15 Apr 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 12 Apr 114
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Apr 005/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 Apr 009/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 013/018-010/010-009/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Apr till 15 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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