Viewing archive of måndag, 19 mars 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Mar 19 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 079 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 Mar 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1432 (N22W68) produced
a C1/Sf event at 19/1351Z while developing spots in an area that was
previously plage.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next two days (20-21 March) until Regions 1432
and 1435 (S26W62) exit the visible disk. Activity is expected to
decrease to very low levels with a chance for C-class activity on
day three (22 March).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. An isolated
period of active was observed for the 0300-0600Z synoptic period.
The enhanced activity followed what appeared to be the 15 March
transient arrival at the ACE spacecraft around 19/0315Z. Total
field strength rose to 7nT, Bz turned southward to -7nT, wind speeds
reached up to 590 km/s, and temperature and density showed a slight
increase. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 20 March. Activity
is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels for the rest of the
period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 Mar till 22 Mar
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 19 Mar 102 Prognoserat 20 Mar-22 Mar 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 123
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 18 Mar 011/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 19 Mar 008/009 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 Mar till 22 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 15% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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