Viewing archive of söndag, 18 mars 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Mar 18 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 078 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 Mar 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1434 (S20W40) produced
a single C1/Sn flare at 17/0237Z and ended the period as a Dso type
group with beta magnetic characteristics. Region 1435 (S25W50) grew
larger and more magnetically complex, ending as a Dao type group
with beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. A non-Earth-directed CME
was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 18/0024Z and believed to
originate from old Region 1429 (N19, L=295).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare from Regions 1434 or 1435.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The
coronal hole high speed stream abated over the course of the day.
Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft began declining from 650 km/s
at 17/2300Z to end the period near 500 km/s. Bt decreased and Bz was
neutral to slightly negative. With the departure of the high speed
stream, the geomagnetic field activity decreased from active to
quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels as a CME from 15 March
arrives early in the period on Day 1 (19 March). There is a slight
chance for minor storm levels. Activity levels are expected to
decline to unsettled on Day 2 (20 March) and quiet by Day 3 (21
March) as the effects from the CME subside.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 Mar till 21 Mar
| M-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 18 Mar 102 Prognoserat 19 Mar-21 Mar 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 124
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 17 Mar 015/022 Förväntat Afr/Ap 18 Mar 011/013 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 015/020-008/010-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 Mar till 21 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 05% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/27 | M3.0 |
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| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
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| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
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