Viewing archive of måndag, 5 mars 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Mar 05 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 065 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Mar 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z Solar activity has been high. An X1/2b flare occurred
at 05/0409Z from Region 1429 (N17E41). This flare was associated
with a full halo CME with a LASCO C3 plane of sky speed of about
1340 km/sec. Region 1429 has a beta-delta magnetic class with an
area of approximately 810 millionths, and appears to be growing. The
region produced additional M-class flares during the period. New
Region 1431 (S27W36) was numbered today and is a small B-type
sunspot group.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, but there is a chance for additional major flare activity
and/or a greater than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled with the
exception of some active to minor storm periods at high latitudes. A
greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement began at about 05/0030Z.
Flux levels remained elevated throughout the day and reached a peak
of 3.9 pfu at 05/1630Z. The initial increase was associated with the
long duration M2 flare of 04 March, but additional particles were
also contributed by todays X1/CME event. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for day 1 (06 Mar) due to
combined effects from the M4/CME event observed on 04 March and a
favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream. Active
conditions with a chance for minor storm periods are forecast for
the second day (07 Mar) due to a expected glancing blow from todays
X1/full halo CME. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for
the third day (08 Mar).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Mar till 08 Mar
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 05 Mar 132 Prognoserat 06 Mar-08 Mar 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 05 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Mar 010/014 Förväntat Afr/Ap 05 Mar 007/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 012/015-013/020-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Mar till 08 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 35% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 30% | 40% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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