Viewing archive of söndag, 4 mars 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Mar 04 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 064 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 04 Mar 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. A long duration M2/1N
flare was observed at 04/1052Z from Region 1429 (N18E55).
Associated with the event was a 750 sfu Tenflare, Type IV Radio
Sweep, and a CME first visible in STEREO B COR 2 Imagery at 04/1210Z
(estimated speed of 840 km/s). This region is classified as a Dkc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Further
analysis of the CME will be necessary as imagery becomes available,
however there appears to be a partial Earth-directed component. A
glancing blow is possible from this event.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a slight chance for an X-class flare
from Region 1429.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions with an
isolated major storm period observed at high latitudes between
04/0900 - 1200Z. Activity was due to extended periods of the
negative Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field near -5
nT. The solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was relatively
steady near 380 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (05 March). Activity levels
are expected to increase on day 2 (06 March) due to a possible
glancing blow from todays CME associated with the M2/1N flare.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected with isolated minor
storm periods possible. Conditions are expected to settle down to
mostly quiet to unsettled conditions by day 3 (07 March) as the
effects of the CME wane. There is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429 for the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 05 Mar till 07 Mar
| M-klass | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 04 Mar 120 Prognoserat 05 Mar-07 Mar 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 03 Mar 008/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 04 Mar 012/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 006/005-012/015-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 05 Mar till 07 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 30% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 35% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 15% | 10% |
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