Viewing archive of söndag, 26 februari 2012

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Feb 26 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 057 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 26 Feb 2012

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1421 (N14W48) produced a C1 flare at 26/1125Z. New flux emergence appeared to the west of Regions 1423 (N17E29) and 1424 (N07E39) and were numbered Regions 1425 (N18E12) and 1426 (N10E12) respectively. Two CMEs were observed during the reporting period; the first, observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 26/0200Z off the NE limb and the second at 26/0636Z off the NW limb. Neither are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (27 - 29 February).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated active period observed at high latitudes at 26/0900 - 1200Z. The >10 MeV proton enhancement that began early on 25 February continued with a maximum value of 4.6 pfu at 26/0055Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods possible on day 1 (27 February) as the 24 February CME is expected to be geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions are expected on day 2 (28 February). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (29 February). There is a slight chance for a >10 MeV proton event due to shock enhancement of the proton levels on days 1 - 2 (27 - 28 February).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 27 Feb till 29 Feb
M-klass01%01%01%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton10%10%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       26 Feb 107
  Prognoserat   27 Feb-29 Feb  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        26 Feb 129
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 25 Feb  003/006
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 26 Feb  006/008
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 27 Feb-29 Feb  011/015-010/010-004/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 27 Feb till 29 Feb
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt25%20%05%
Små stormförhållanden10%05%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%25%15%
Små stormförhållanden25%20%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%10%05%

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