Viewing archive of lördag, 25 februari 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Feb 25 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 056 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 Feb 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Umbral separation was
observed in Region 1422 (N15W78). Slight decay was observed in the
trailing spots of Region 1424 (N08E52). The rest of the spot groups
were relatively quiet and stable. A filament eruption on the SE
limb was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 24/1911Z. A
corresponding CME off the SE limb was observed in LASCO C2 imagery
beginning at 24/1948Z. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (26 -
28 February).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
major storm conditions were observed at high latitudes (College)
during the periods ending at 25/1200Z and 25/1500Z. A greater than
10 MeV proton enhancement began at approximately 25/0330Z and
reached a maximum of 3 pfu at 25/1830Z and continued to be enhanced
by the end of the reporting period. The event did not reach event
threshold and likely originated from a backside event.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (26 February). Early on day 2
(27 February), unsettled to active conditions are expected with
minor storm periods possible due to the expected arrival of the 24
February CME. Conditions are expected to calm to quiet to unsettled
levels with active periods possible by day 3 (28 February).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 Feb till 28 Feb
| M-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 25 Feb 108 Prognoserat 26 Feb-28 Feb 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 129
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 24 Feb 006/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 25 Feb 004/006 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 004/005-011/015-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 Feb till 28 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 05% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 15% | 10% |
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