Viewing archive of måndag, 14 november 2011

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 318 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 Nov 2011

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Four new emerging flux regions were observed overnight, one of which emerged on the disk as Region 1348 (N20W70). Region 1348 was responsible for two C-flares overnight; the largest was a C5/Sf at 14/0930Z. Associated with this event was a Type II radio sweep with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of 610 km/sec. Possible decay was noted in the trailing spots of Regions 1339 (N19W89) and 1344 (S17W86) as they are rotating off of the west limb. There was growth noted in the trailing spots of Region 1341 (N09W35). A slight amount of consolidation was observed in Region 1347 (N07E28). The additional three new flux regions were assigned numbers 1349 (N15W02), 1350 (N26E67), and 1351 (S23E51). A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO C3 imagery at approximately 12/1906Z off of the east limb. The plane-of-sky velocity was calculated to be 638 km/sec. An additional CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery at 13/1930Z from the north limb. Neither CME is expected to become geoeffective.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (15 - 17 November). There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Regions 1339, 1344 and new Region 1350.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (15 - 17 November).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 Nov till 17 Nov
M-klass20%10%10%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       14 Nov 161
  Prognoserat   15 Nov-17 Nov  155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        14 Nov 135
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 13 Nov  002/000
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 14 Nov  002/002
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 Nov till 17 Nov
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt06%06%06%
Små stormförhållanden01%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden00%00%00%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt16%16%16%
Små stormförhållanden17%17%17%
Svåra stormförhållanden08%08%08%

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