Viewing archive of söndag, 13 november 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Nov 13 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 317 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 13 Nov 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. Frequent low-level C-class
flares occurred, most of which were produced by Region 1344
(S18W73). Region 1344 showed little change during the period, but
analysis was hampered by limb proximity. The same was true of Region
1339 (N19W75) as it approached the west limb. Region 1341 (N10W22)
showed gradual spot development in its intermediate and trailer
portions and produced a single C-class flare. New Region 1347
(N07E55) emerged early in the period and appeared to be in a gradual
growth phase. It produced a single C-class flare. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (14 - 16 November). There will be a slight chance
for an isolated M-class flare until Regions 1339 and 1344 depart the
west limb early on 15 November.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (14 - 16
November).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 14 Nov till 16 Nov
| M-klass | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 13 Nov 155 Prognoserat 14 Nov-16 Nov 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 135
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 12 Nov 003/002 Förväntat Afr/Ap 13 Nov 002/003 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 14 Nov till 16 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 03% | 01% | 02% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 14% | 13% | 14% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 09% | 08% | 08% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 04% | 02% | 03% |
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