Viewing archive of fredag, 26 augusti 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Aug 26 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 238 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 26 Aug 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1271 (N17W69)
produced two C-class events during the period, the largest a C2
x-ray event at 26/1313Z. The region continued to exhibit decay in
spot count, area and magnetic complexity. Other activity consisted
of a B9 x-ray event from Region 1279 (N13E61), observed at 26/1333Z.
New Region 1280 (N17E24) emerged on the disk as a simple bi-polar
spot group. The remainder of the regions were quiet and stable.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (27 - 29 August). A slight chance for
M-class activity exists on days one and two from Region 1271 before
the region rotates around the west limb on 28 August.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Observations from the ACE spacecraft
indicated steady conditions with wind speeds averaging about 400
km/s.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for day one (27 August). By day
two (28 August), activity levels are expected to increase to quiet
to unsettled, with isolated active periods, due to a geoeffective,
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The conditions are
expected to persist through day three (29 August).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 27 Aug till 29 Aug
| M-klass | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 26 Aug 105 Prognoserat 27 Aug-29 Aug 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 097
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 25 Aug 004/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 26 Aug 002/004 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 005/005-007/010-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 27 Aug till 29 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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