Viewing archive of torsdag, 25 augusti 2011

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Aug 25 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 237 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 25 Aug 2011

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1271 (N17W56) decayed in area and spot count, but developed a Delta magnetic configuration in the large leader spot. The region produced numerous low-level B-class events. Three new regions were numbered during the period. In the western hemisphere, new Region 1278 (N16W40) emerged as a simple 4-spot bi-polar group. On the eastern limb, new Region 1277 (N17E62) and new Region 1279 (N14E75) both rotated onto the disk as large, uni-polar H-type groups. Region 1277 produced a B9 x-ray event at 25/0702Z while Region 1279 produced another B9 x-ray event at 25/1652Z. The SOHO LASCO satellite observed a slow-moving CME off the east limb, first observed in C2 imagery at 25/0856Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 420 km/s. This CME does not appear to have an Earthward directed component.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class event all three days (26 - 28 August).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 24-2100Z till 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated a steady decline in solar wind velocity during the period from about 500 km/s to near 400 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT while the phi angle remained negative (toward) throughout the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels for days one and two (26 - 27 August). By day three (28 August), activity levels are expected to increase to quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods, due to a geoeffective, recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 26 Aug till 28 Aug
M-klass10%10%10%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       25 Aug 104
  Prognoserat   26 Aug-28 Aug  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        25 Aug 097
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 24 Aug  005/006
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 25 Aug  005/005
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  005/005-005/005-007/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 26 Aug till 28 Aug
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%20%
Små stormförhållanden01%01%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%30%
Små stormförhållanden01%01%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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