Viewing archive of tisdag, 12 juli 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Jul 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 193 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Jul 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1247 (S18W40) produced a C1 event at 12/1449Z and has decayed to a
Cao-type region while maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. Region 1250 (S27E18) has shown slight growth in areal
coverage and is now considered to have a beta-gamma classification.
All other regions on the disk remained relatively quiet and stable.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event for the next
three days (12 July).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. ACE spacecraft measurements indicated solar wind velocities
reached approximately 760 km/s at 12/1530Z due to a geoeffective
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods on day one (13 July) due to residual effects from the CH
HSS. Conditions are expected to be unsettled to active with a chance
for isolated minor storm conditions on day two (14 July) due to
effects from the CME observed on 11 July. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected to return on day three (15 July) as effects from the
CME subside.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Jul till 15 Jul
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 Jul 092 Prognoserat 13 Jul-15 Jul 094/094/094 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Jul 010/013 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 Jul 008/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 010/012-015/015-005/007
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Jul till 15 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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