Viewing archive of måndag, 11 juli 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Jul 11 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 192 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 Jul 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1249 (S18W04) produced a
C2/1f at 11/1103Z with a Type II radio signature (est. shock
velocity 977 km/s). A CME associated with this event became visible
in STEREO COR-2 imagery at 11/1209Z and had an estimated speed of
750 km/s. Region 1251 (N15E68) was numbered overnight and is
currently an Hsx-alpha type region. All other regions on the disk
appear to be relatively stable.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days
(12-14 July).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours.
The increase in activity is due to a combination of the coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS) and the CME observed on 09 July. A Sudden
Impulse (SI) was observed at Earth at 11/0852Z with a 24 nT
deviation measured at the Boulder magnetometer indicating the
arrival of the CME. ACE spacecraft measurements indicated solar wind
velocities of 700 km/s towards the end of the period, most likely
due to the arrival of a second CH HSS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods
for the next three days (12-14 July) due to the onset of a recurrent
CH HSS and the anticipated arrival (late on day two) of the CME
observed early this morning.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 Jul till 14 Jul
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 11 Jul 090 Prognoserat 12 Jul-14 Jul 092/094/094 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 099
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 10 Jul 008/012 Förväntat Afr/Ap 11 Jul 010/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 007/007-010/012-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 Jul till 14 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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