Viewing archive of lördag, 9 juli 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Jul 09 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 190 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 09 Jul 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1247 (S18W02) produced the largest event of the
period, a B4 x-ray event at 09/0028Z. A nearby filament eruption was
associated with this event with a subsequent partial-halo asymmetric
CME, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0125Z. This CME does
have an earth directed component. Region 1249 (S16E25) was numbered
early in the period but like many of the numbered regions on the
disk, has remained stable.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (10-12 July).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels of the past
24 hours. The elevated activity was due to a solar sector boundary
(SSB) crossing early in the period. Measurements by the ACE
spacecraft indicate the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS) with solar wind speeds increasing, from 350 km/s to
around 450 km/s.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days
(10-11 July) as a CH HSS continues to be geoeffective. On day three
(12 July), coupled with the arrival of another CH HSS, the CME,
observed earlier today, is expected to impact Earth. Since this CME
was only a partial-halo and is not traveling at great speed, only
unsettled to active levels are expected.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 10 Jul till 12 Jul
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 09 Jul 086 Prognoserat 10 Jul-12 Jul 086/086/088 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 099
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 08 Jul 006/008 Förväntat Afr/Ap 09 Jul 010/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 007/007-007/007-012/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 10 Jul till 12 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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