Viewing archive of söndag, 12 juni 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Jun 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 163 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Jun 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity remained very low. Isolated B-class
x-ray flares occurred. A B8 flare at 12/1714Z was from a region just
beyond the northeast limb. Region 1234 (S15E18) was the only spotted
region on the disk and remained a simply-structured Bxo group. A
prominence erupted from the west limb near N09W90 during 12/1341 -
1443Z and was associated with a CME. The CME had an estimated
plane-of-sky speed of 565 km/s and did not appear to be
Earth-directed. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to very low
during the period (13 - 15 June) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during most of
the period. An active period was observed at Boulder during 12/1200
- 1500Z. ACE solar wind data indicated the continued presence of a
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) with wind speeds in the 436
to 485 km/s range. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was slightly enhanced, likely associated with
recent activity in old Region 1226 (S20, L=037), which departed the
west limb on 09 June.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (13 -
14 June) with a chance for active levels due CH HSS effects.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (15 June)
as the CH HSS begins to subside. There is a slight chance for a
greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit on day 1
(13 June).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Jun till 15 Jun
| M-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 Jun 085 Prognoserat 13 Jun-15 Jun 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 12 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Jun 010/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 Jun 010/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Jun till 15 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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