Viewing archive of onsdag, 6 juli 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Jul 06 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 187 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 06 Jul 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1243
(N15W46) produced a B2 flare at 05/2156Z. An approximately 23 degree
long filament centered near N25W60 was first observed lifting toward
the NW at approximately 06/1052Z. An associated CME was observed at
06/1048Z directed toward the NW on SOHO LASCO imagery. SOHO LASCO C2
showed an estimated plane of sky speed of about 573 km/s. The CME
did not appear to be Earth-directed. Region 1243 continued to show
an increase in spots and area and was classified as a Dai group with
a Beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare for the next three
days (07-09 July).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an
isolated active period between 06/0600-0900Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
levels, late on day one (07 July) and day two (08 July). The
increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed
stream and a possible CME passage from the partial-halo CME observed
on LASCO C3 at 03/0142. Predominantly quiet levels are expected on
day three (09 July).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 07 Jul till 09 Jul
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 06 Jul 085 Prognoserat 07 Jul-09 Jul 084/082/084 90 Day Mean 06 Jul 100
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 05 Jul 008/014 Förväntat Afr/Ap 06 Jul 007/007 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 008/008-010/010-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 07 Jul till 09 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 35% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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