Viewing archive of tisdag, 5 juli 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Jul 05 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 186 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Jul 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Several
low-level B-class flares occurred during the period from Regions
1242 (N18, L=056) and 1243 (N16W34). Region 1243 showed an increase
in spots and area and was classified as a Cso-beta group. Region
1244 (N15W67) showed a decrease in spots and area and was classified
as a Dso group with a Beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions
were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare for the next three
days (06-08 July).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Minor storm
levels were observed between 05/0300-0600Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (06 July). Quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active levels, are expected late on
day two (07 July) and day three (08 July). The increase in activity
is due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream and a possible
CME passage from the partial-halo CME observed on LASCO C3 at
03/0142Z.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Jul till 08 Jul
| M-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 05 Jul 085 Prognoserat 06 Jul-08 Jul 084/083/080 90 Day Mean 05 Jul 100
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Jul 007/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 05 Jul 007/014 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 005/005-008/008-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Jul till 08 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 15% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 20% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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