Viewing archive of lördag, 28 maj 2011
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 May 28 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 148 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 28 May 2011IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S19E65) produced
the majority of the flare activity, including a C8 x-ray event at
28/0331Z. The region grew rapidly in size, spot count and
complexity over the past 24 hours, ending the period as an Eai spot
group with Beta-Gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 1224
(N20W28), a Dso class group with Beta magnetic characteristics, also
grew over the past 24 hours.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is likely to remain low
for the next three days (29-31 May) with a slight chance for an
M-class event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm
levels over the past 24 hours. The ACE spacecraft observed the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field turned southward
(negative) at approximately 25/0530Z. The field generally ranged
from -5 nT to -12 nT between 27/2130Z to 28/1230Z. The prolonged
southward Bz resulted in substantial geomagnetic disruption and was
attributed to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream
possibly coupled with effects from the 25 May filament eruption.
Solar wind speed rose above 500 km/s after 28/0530Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to active levels, with isolated
minor storm periods, on days 1 and 2 (29-30 May), becoming
predominantly unsettled on day 3 (31 May). This activity is in
response to the continued influence of the coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 29 May till 31 May
| M-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 28 May 101 Prognoserat 29 May-31 May 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 28 May 108
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 27 May 007/011 Förväntat Afr/Ap 28 May 032/035 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 020/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 29 May till 31 May
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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