Viewing archive of fredag, 27 maj 2011

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2011 May 28 0225 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Nummer 147 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 27 May 2011

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z

Solar activity was low. New Region 1226 (S18E74) produced a B-class event and four C-class events since being numbered today. The largest was a C5 observed at 27/1643Z. This region began with a B1 event at 26/1654Z as it approached the southeast limb yesterday. It is currently an H-type group, however, the region is still rotating onto the disk and more white light area are evident in the SDO/HMI imagery just visible on the limb. Region 1223 (S16W00) produced the only other event during the period, a B4 at 27/0953Z. This region is a Dso group with a beta magnetic classification and grew slightly in sunspot count. Two more regions were numbered today as Regions 1224 (N21W15) and 1225 (N18E55). Region 1224 is a Dso group with a beta magnetic classification and 1225 is another H-type group.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for C-class events, and a slight chance for an M-class event, as regions on the disk continue to evolve.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Observations from the ACE spacecraft suggest the earth is under the continued influence of the co-rotating interaction region in advance of the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar winds have slowly increased from around 390 to 500 km/s. The IMF Bt averaged around 8 nT with the Bz mostly southward (-8 nT) through the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately unsettled with occasional active periods, including isolated minor storm conditions at high-latitudes for day one (28 May). This is expected due to effects from the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). In addition there are possible effects from the disappearing filament observed on 25 May. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active levels, are expected for days two and three (29-30 May) with continued CH HSS effects.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 28 May till 30 May
M-klass10%10%10%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       27 May 090
  Prognoserat   28 May-30 May  090/095/095
  90 Day Mean        27 May 108
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 26 May  004/007
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 27 May  010/012
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  015/018-010/012-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 28 May till 30 May
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt25%20%15%
Små stormförhållanden10%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt35%30%20%
Små stormförhållanden15%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%

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