Viewing archive of fredag, 12 november 2010
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2010 Nov 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 316 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Nov 2010IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Multiple C-class events, from Region 1123 (S22W10), were
observed throughout the period, the largest being a C4.6/Sf at
12/0134Z. Associated with this event were discrete radio emissions
at 245 MHz and 610 MHz, a Type II radio sweep, with an estimated
shock velocity of 505 km/s, and finally LASCO C2 imagery showed a
CME liftoff at 12/0248Z. Region 1124 (N14E12) has shown some growth
in spot count and areal coverage but has remained quiet. New Region
1126 (S28E73) was numbered late in the forecast period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for
the next three days (13-15 November).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels with
isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes for the past 24
hours. Mostly unsettled to active conditions were observed from
11/2100Z - 12/1300Z. At around 12/1500Z, signatures from the ACE
spacecraft showed a decrease in density, solar wind speed, and
temperature as the geomagnetic field started to recover from
yesterdays CME driven disturbance. Quiet levels were observed for
the remainder of the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13
November). Activity is expected to increase to mostly unsettled
levels on day two (14 November) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (15 November). This increase in activity is due to the
arrival of multiple small CMEs mixed with the effects of a
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Nov till 15 Nov
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 Nov 085 Prognoserat 13 Nov-15 Nov 085/084/084 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Nov 012/015 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 Nov 011/012 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 007/008-010/012-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Nov till 15 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
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