Viewing archive of onsdag, 13 april 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Apr 13 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 103 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 13 Apr 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. All of the regions on the
disk were stable and quiet, and the GOES x-ray flux remained below B
level for the entire interval. New Region 753 (N12W06) emerged as
a small, C-type sunspot group.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly active with a few minor storm
periods. The enhanced activity is being driven by a high speed
stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours (14 April).
The currently enhanced activity level is expected to diminish around
midday on the 14th as the high speed stream moves out of
geoeffective position. Mostly unsettled levels should predominate on
15 April, and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 16
April.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 14 Apr till 16 Apr
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 13 Apr 084 Prognoserat 14 Apr-16 Apr 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 095
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 12 Apr 023/030 Förväntat Afr/Ap 13 Apr 020/027 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 015/020-010/015-005/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 14 Apr till 16 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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