Viewing archive of tisdag, 12 april 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Apr 12 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 102 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Apr 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity was low due to a C2/Sf flare at 1721 UTC
from newly assigned Region 752 (N00E76). There were additional
B-class events during the past 24 hours and all of these were from
752 as well. At this time Region 752 is a small, D-type sunspot
region.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (13-15 April).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
Conditions were at mostly active to minor storm levels during the
past 24 hours with a major storm interval at high latitudes from
0000-0300 UTC. The enhanced activity is being driven by a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 36 hours (13 April to 14
April 1200 UTC) due to persistent coronal hole effects. Conditions
should begin to decline partway through the 14th and should be quiet
to unsettled by the 3rd day (15th).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Apr till 15 Apr
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 Apr 085 Prognoserat 13 Apr-15 Apr 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 12 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Apr 006/010 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 Apr 020/025 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 020/025-012/018-007/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Apr till 15 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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