Viewing archive of fredag, 4 februari 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Feb 04 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 035 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 04 Feb 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare occurred at
04/1509Z from a source on the east limb near N14. This is likely the
return of old Region 720 (N13, L=178), which produced several major
flares during its previous transit across the visible disk. Several
brightenings near the northeast limb suggest this region is still
quite active. A CME at 04/0731Z occurred in association with a
prominence eruption from the northeast limb. The CME does not appear
to be Earth directed. New Region 730 (S20E73) was numbered today and
produced occasional B-class flares.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The probability for M-class activty will increase
following the return of old Region 720 on 05 February.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed began the period at
over 500 km/s, but gradually decreased to near 430 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
again today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet with occasional unsettled periods
on 05 and 06 February. A coronal hole high speed stream is expected
to rotate into geoeffective position on 07 February and induce
occasional active periods.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 05 Feb till 07 Feb
| M-klass | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 04 Feb 082 Prognoserat 05 Feb-07 Feb 090/100/115 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 03 Feb 005/008 Förväntat Afr/Ap 04 Feb 005/004 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-005/005-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 05 Feb till 07 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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