Viewing archive of torsdag, 3 februari 2005
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Feb 03 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 034 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 03 Feb 2005IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class flares
were observed from an active region rotating around the southeast
limb. Region 729 (S11W25) continues to decay and is the only sunspot
on the visible disk. A 15 degree filament erupted from near N10W07
at around 03/0600Z, but there does not appear to be any
Earth-directed ejecta. Brightness on the southeast and northeast
limb indicates additional active regions will soon rotate into view.
Old active Region 720 (N13, L-178) is due to rotate into view on 05
February.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Activity levels are expected to increase as active
regions rotate into view over the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 03/0300 - 0600Z. The solar wind speed remains
slightly elevated at just over 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 04 Feb till 06 Feb
| M-klass | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| X-klass | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 03 Feb 083 Prognoserat 04 Feb-06 Feb 090/100/115 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 101
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 02 Feb 007/008 Förväntat Afr/Ap 03 Feb 008/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 04 Feb till 06 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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