Viewing archive of fredag, 22 oktober 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Oct 22 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 296 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 22 Oct 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels today.
Region 687 (N10E39) produced an M2/1n flare at 22/0811Z that had an
associated Type IV radio sweep and a Type II radio sweep with an
estimated shock velocity 521 km/sec. LASCO imagery depicted a CME
shortly following this event which may have a weak Earth-bound
component. The sunspot area in this region underwent strong growth
during the period, adding penumbral coverage to the trailing cluster
of spots in the group. Region 682 (S13W59) underwent little change
today and produced a single low level B-class flare. Region 684
(S05E01) has shown rapid growth in sunspot area and magnetic
structure during the period. Region 690 (N00E78) was numbered
today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 687 is capable of producing further
M-class flares and has a slight chance of producing an isolated
major flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 23 and 24 October. A
chance of isolated active conditions may occur on 25 October due to
the potential for a glancing blow from the CME that resulted from
the M2/1n flare mentioned in IA.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 23 Oct till 25 Oct
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 22 Oct 123 Prognoserat 23 Oct-25 Oct 125/130/125 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 104
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 21 Oct 005/008 Förväntat Afr/Ap 22 Oct 004/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 004/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 23 Oct till 25 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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