Viewing archive of torsdag, 21 oktober 2004

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Oct 21 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 295 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 21 Oct 2004

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 687 (N10E52) produced multiple C-class flares during the period, the largest was a C9.9 x-ray flare that occurred at 21/1948Z. At 21/0040Z this region produced a C7/Sf flare with an associated CME that was observed in LASCO. The CME does not appear to be Earth-directed. Close scrutiny of available data indicates that the penumbral area of Region 687 is a single polarity structure yielding a CSO beta-gamma sunspot classification. Region 682 (S13W46) produced two C-class flares during the period, a C1/Sf that occurred at 21/1442Z and a C4/Sf event occurring at 21/1522Z. Although the overall sunspot count went down the sunspot distribution of intermediate spots matured during the period which accounts for the compact classification. Region 689 (N12E74) seen on the solar east limb was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 682 and 687 are both capable of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 22 Oct till 24 Oct
M-klass50%50%50%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       21 Oct 112
  Prognoserat   22 Oct-24 Oct  115/120/115
  90 Day Mean        21 Oct 104
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 20 Oct  009/012
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 21 Oct  007/008
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 22 Oct till 24 Oct
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden01%01%01%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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