Viewing archive of onsdag, 11 augusti 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Aug 11 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 224 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 Aug 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
numerous C-class flares, predominantly from Region 656 (S13E03). The
largest event of the day was a C7/Sf from 656 at 1141 UTC. Region
656 continues to grow and is nearly 1000 millionths in area. The
group continues to have a magnetic delta classification. A slow,
faint CME was seen in LASCO off the south limb yesterday, beginning
at about 10/1854 UTC in C2 imagery. The CME was associated with
surge activity and a subsequent EIT wave that was observed just
north of 656 and east of central meridian.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-flares should continue and there is a good chance for
an isolated M-class event during the next three days. There is also
a slight chance for a major flare event from 656. Background levels
are expected to increase tomorrow with the return of old Region 652
(N07, Carrington = 347).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind
data show the continuing influence of a high-speed coronal hole wind
stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for the next two days (12-13 August). Conditions are
expected to be unsettled to active on the 3rd day (14 August) with
the arrival of weak transient flow from yesterday's CME.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 Aug till 14 Aug
| M-klass | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 11 Aug 131 Prognoserat 12 Aug-14 Aug 140/145/150 90 Day Mean 11 Aug 107
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 10 Aug 012/014 Förväntat Afr/Ap 11 Aug 012/013 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 010/010-010/010-015/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 Aug till 14 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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