Viewing archive of tisdag, 10 augusti 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Aug 10 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 223 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 Aug 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
occasional C-class flares from Region 656 (S12E18). Although the
region is still growing the rate of growth has decreased
significantly and the rate of flare activity has also decreased. The
region continues to have a delta magnetic class but shearing in the
region appears to have decreased slightly. New Region 659 (N18E59)
was assigned today and is a small, stable H-type group.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare
from Region 656. There may be an increase in background and activity
levels on 12 August with the return of old Region 652 (N08, L=348)
which produced numerous M-class events on its previous disk transit.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with a minor
storm interval at some locations from 1500-1800 UTC. Solar wind
observations show an increase of velocity and temperature, and a
decrease of density, consistent with the onset of a high-speed
coronal hole solar wind stream.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods for
the next three days (11-13 August).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 Aug till 13 Aug
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 10 Aug 121 Prognoserat 11 Aug-13 Aug 125/130/135 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 106
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 09 Aug 012/013 Förväntat Afr/Ap 10 Aug 010/013 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 Aug till 13 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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