Viewing archive of lördag, 10 januari 2004
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Jan 10 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 010 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 Jan 2004IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region
536 (S12W41) has continued to show a slow, gradual decay in spot
coverage. Multiple B and C-class flares were produced from this
region during the period, the largest was a C7.7/Sf flare that
occurred at 10/0513Z. Region 537 (N05E24) was limited to B-class
flare production today and did show some decay in penumbral
coverage, although the delta magnetic structure remains well intact.
Near continuous surging along side the inversion line near the
delta configuration was observed throughout much of the day.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. There is a fair chance of an isolated major flare
from either of the two remaining spotted active regions visible on
the solar disk; Regions 536 and 537.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Elevated conditions were most likely the response to a geoeffective
coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible due to the continued
effects a favorably positioned coronal hole and the associated high
speed stream.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 Jan till 13 Jan
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 10 Jan 119 Prognoserat 11 Jan-13 Jan 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 136
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 09 Jan 016/021 Förväntat Afr/Ap 10 Jan 015/025 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 015/020-015/025-015/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 Jan till 13 Jan
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 15% |
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