Viewing archive of fredag, 7 november 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Nov 07 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 311 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 Nov 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. A long duration
X-ray enhancement was observed at 0318Z reaching the B8 level. Two
CME's were observed in LASCO imagery and determined to be back
sided. The visible disk is almost spotless with Region 495 (S18W89)
the only spot group observed.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Continued low level X-ray enhancements are possible due
to back side activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event that began at 02/1105Z and reached a peak
value of 1570 pfu on 03/0815Z, ended today at 07/1230Z. A small
enhancement of greater than 10 MeV proton flux was observed at
around 07/1730Z but is currently below threshold. The source of
this enhancement is likely activity from the backside.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storms
levels possible. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 08-09
November. A returning coronal hole is expected to rotate into a
geoeffective position on 10 November with active to isolated minor
storm levels possible.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 Nov till 10 Nov
| M-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 07 Nov 091 Prognoserat 08 Nov-10 Nov 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 07 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 06 Nov 011/014 Förväntat Afr/Ap 07 Nov 006/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 008/015-010/015-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 Nov till 10 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 15% |
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