Viewing archive of torsdag, 6 november 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Nov 06 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 310 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 06 Nov 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. After nearly
three weeks of intense solar activity, the visible surface of the
sun is almost spotless. Region 495 (S21W76) is the only spot group
visible and has exhibited little change from yesterday. A long
duration B5 X-ray enhancement was observed at 06/1831Z and EIT
imagery suggests a source from beyond the west limb.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to range
from very low to low.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The shock
from the X28 flare on 04 November reached Earth at 06/1937Z. A 31nT
sudden impulse was observed on the Boulder magnetometer and activity
reached minor storm levels. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field, as measured by the NASA/ACE spacecraft initially
turned south to -7 nT and total field measurement reached 15 nT. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event continues with current flux levels
at 18 pfu and slowly decreasing.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm
levels possible. Active levels with isolated minor storm levels are
expected on day one. By day two and three activity is expected to
return to quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event is expected to end early on day one.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 07 Nov till 09 Nov
| M-klass | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 50% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 06 Nov 098 Prognoserat 07 Nov-09 Nov 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 06 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 05 Nov 004/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 06 Nov 012/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 020/020-010/015-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 07 Nov till 09 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 20% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 10% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
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