Viewing archive of lördag, 30 augusti 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Aug 30 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 242 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 30 Aug 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Though several regions
continue to reside on the solar disk, none have demonstrated a
strong level of activity. A solar filament (near S12W27, 17 deg
extent) collapsed at 2022 UTC, but no material appears to have been
ejected from the sun.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low.
None of the current active regions shows any signs of greater than
low potential for flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels with a
single period of major storming at 0600 UTC. The interplanetary
magnetic field continues to be oriented southward, and the solar
wind speeds continue to be elevated well above 450 km/s. During the
storm period, wind speeds were near 650 km/s. There is some
evidence in the energetic protons measured at the L1 orbit that a
small interplanetary shock passed at or near the major storming
period. The greater the 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next 24 to
36 hours. Near the end of the second day, a co-rotating interaction
region associated with a coronal hole should effect minor to major
storm levels, and continue as a high speed stream for the remainder
of the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 31 Aug till 02 Sep
| M-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 30 Aug 114 Prognoserat 31 Aug-02 Sep 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 29 Aug 012/015 Förväntat Afr/Ap 30 Aug 015/018 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 012/012-020/020-025/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 31 Aug till 02 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 15% | 25% |
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| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/05/03 | X1.6 |
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