Viewing archive of fredag, 29 augusti 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Aug 29 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 241 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 29 Aug 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. Though several regions
currently reside on the visible disk, none show significant
potential for greater than C-class flare activity. Two new regions;
450 (S18E66) and 451 (S10W65) were numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 450, 449, and 445 have a fair chance of producing C-class
flare activity. No other activity is expected.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 28-2100Z till 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. Two
periods of minor storming occurred one at 1200 and another at 1700
UTC. The solar wind speeds continue to be elevated above 450 km/s,
reaching over 600 km/s toward the end of the period. This combined
with a sustained southward interplanetary magnetic field polarity
have kept the geomagnetic field elevated. The greater than 2 MeV
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days.
By late on day three, geomagnetic activity should increase to
unsettled to minor storm levels due to a co-rotating interaction
region associated with a coronal hole.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 30 Aug till 01 Sep
| M-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 29 Aug 116 Prognoserat 30 Aug-01 Sep 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 29 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 28 Aug 011/018 Förväntat Afr/Ap 29 Aug 012/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 010/012-010/012-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 30 Aug till 01 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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