Viewing archive of torsdag, 7 augusti 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Aug 07 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 219 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 Aug 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 421 (S07W72)
produced several flares, including a C1.3 at 07/1203 UTC. Two
C-class flares were produced from an active region just on the other
side of the east limb, the largest a C2.1 at 07/2050 UTC. These
events were optically correlated with SXI imagery. Region 424 has
stabilized in size and magnetic complexity. New Region 430 (S08W13)
was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. C-class flares are possible from Region
421. In the next few days, active regions just beyond the east limb
should begin to appear earthside, which may produce increased solar
activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. High
solar wind speeds (up to 700 km/s), associated with a coronal hole in
geoeffective position, are the likely cause of active conditions late
in the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels, with isolated minor storm
conditions possible, for day one, due to continued influence of an
equatorial coronal hole. On days two and three, as the coronal hole
rotates out of geoeffective position, activity should decrease to
quiet to unsettled conditions.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 Aug till 10 Aug
| M-klass | 40% | 45% | 45% |
| X-klass | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 07 Aug 137 Prognoserat 08 Aug-10 Aug 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 06 Aug 034/043 Förväntat Afr/Ap 07 Aug 010/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 025/040-012/025-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 Aug till 10 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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