Viewing archive of onsdag, 6 augusti 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Aug 06 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 218 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 06 Aug 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Several B-class
flares were observed during the period, including a B8.7 from Region
424. Region 424 (S18E13) continues to grow in magnetic complexity
to a Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 424 may produce C-class flares and isolated
M-class flares.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z
The geomagentic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. ACE
satellite data indicated a consistent southward Bz at 06/0200 UTC,
with increasing solar wind speed thereafter, up to a maximum of 600
km/s. ACE data is consistent with the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region and associated high speed solar wind from an
equatorial coronal hole moving into geoeffective position.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic activity for the
next two days is expected to be unsettled to active, with isolated
minor storm conditions, due to the increased solar wind stream from
an associated coronal hole in geoeffective position. On day three,
geomagnetic activity is expected at quiet to unsettled conditions,
as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 07 Aug till 09 Aug
| M-klass | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 06 Aug 129 Prognoserat 07 Aug-09 Aug 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 06 Aug 035/045 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 035/045-025/045-012/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 07 Aug till 09 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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