Viewing archive of måndag, 28 juli 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jul 28 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 209 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 28 Jul 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 421
(S08E67) has shown significant growth over the period and has begun
to produce B and C-class flares. A weak gamma magnetic structure
has become evident in the central portion of the region. Newly
numbered Region 422 (N14W41) appears to be a fully developed region
(possibly the return of old Region 400) and has also produced B and
C-class flares today. This region may have a fair degree of
magnetic complexity, but it is currently too close to the east limb
for a comprehensive analysis.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 421 and 422 may both have the potential to
produce an isolated low level M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is believed to be
responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels
today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions are expected throughout the interval
due to high speed solar wind effects.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 29 Jul till 31 Jul
| M-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 28 Jul 103 Prognoserat 29 Jul-31 Jul 110/115/120 90 Day Mean 28 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 27 Jul 016/024 Förväntat Afr/Ap 28 Jul 018/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 020/025-015/025-020/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 29 Jul till 31 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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