Viewing archive of tisdag, 1 juli 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jul 01 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 182 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 01 Jul 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 30-2100Z till 01-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity consisted of a few, low-level C-class flares from
Region 397 (N10E26). This region is no longer growing and may even
be showing a slight decaying trend. Nonetheless the group remains
the largest on disk at 770 millionths and consists of highly mixed
magnetic polarities including a small delta spot near the trailing
part of the region. New Region 400 (N05E69) was assigned today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there continues to be a chance for an isolated
M-class event from Region 397 during the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 30-2100Z till 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, but there was an
active period from 0300-0600 UTC. Solar wind speed showed steady
decline during the past 24 hours from initial values around 750 km/s
to day end values around 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes were high.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods for
the next two days. An increase to active is expected on the third
day in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 02 Jul till 04 Jul
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 01 Jul 131 Prognoserat 02 Jul-04 Jul 130/135/135 90 Day Mean 01 Jul 123
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 30 Jun 014/020 Förväntat Afr/Ap 01 Jul 013/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 010/015-010/015-020/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 02 Jul till 04 Jul
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 15% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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