Viewing archive of måndag, 7 april 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 07 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 097 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 Apr 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 324 (S13W85)
produced a C2 flare at 07/0304Z. Region 324 was to be the source of
the majority of activity during the past twenty-four hours. Region
324 continues to simplify and decay as it transits the west limb.
Region 325 (N15W63) and Region 331 (S07W34) are the two largest
regions on the disk but are relatively unchanged since yesterday.
New Region 332 (N11E58) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 324, 325, and 330 (N07E38) continue to
represent C-class potential with a slight chance of a minor M-class
event.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Greater than
2 MeV electrons at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active
conditions. A weak CME shock from the M1 event on 04 April is
expected to arrive late today or early on day one. A returning
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to produce unsettled to
isolated minor storm levels on day three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 Apr till 10 Apr
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| X-klass | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 07 Apr 116 Prognoserat 08 Apr-10 Apr 110/105/100 90 Day Mean 07 Apr 134
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 06 Apr 006/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 07 Apr 007/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 015/015-012/015-020/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 Apr till 10 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 03% | 07% |
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