Viewing archive of lördag, 5 april 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Apr 05 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 095 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Apr 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 324 (S11W62)
produced a number of C-class flares with the largest one a C6 at
05/0916Z. Region 324 has decreased in area coverage and spot count
but has retained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity with a
weak delta configuration evident in the northeast intermediate
spots. A C4/1f flare occurred at 05/1509Z from a spotless plage
region near S16E75. Region 321 (N09W83) continues a gradual decline
as it approaches the west limb. New Region 331 (S07W09) was
numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance of isolated M-class activity. Regions 324
and 321 have the potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with one
period of minor storm conditions. Solar wind was stable near 500
km/s until late in the period when it increased to over 550 km/s.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. Elevated solar
wind speeds and oscillating Bz are expected to gradually decline
over the next few days. Late on day two or early on day three a
weak CME shock from the M1.9 flare on 04 April may result in
isolated active to minor storm conditions.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Apr till 08 Apr
| M-klass | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| X-klass | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 05 Apr 137 Prognoserat 06 Apr-08 Apr 135/130/120 90 Day Mean 05 Apr 135
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Apr 013/026 Förväntat Afr/Ap 05 Apr 020/025 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 015/015-012/015-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Apr till 08 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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