Viewing archive of torsdag, 27 februari 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Feb 27 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 058 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 27 Feb 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. There was just one C-class
flare today: a C1 at 0158 UTC that was from Region 288 on the west
limb at N14. Three new regions were assigned today: Region 293
(S21E26), Region 294 (S07E42), and Region 295 (S19E65). All are
simple, small sunspot groups. SXI images from GOES-12 show another
active region behind east limb at about N14.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low for the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 26-2100Z till 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. The solar sector boundary that began late
yesterday was followed by a co-rotating interaction region and a
high speed coronal hole stream. The CIR portion of the solar wind
flow included some intervals of moderate to strong negative
z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field (-10 to -15 nT) and
was associated with about 9 hours of active to minor storm levels.
Conditions declined to unsettled to active during the last 12 hours
of the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24-48 hours as the
current high speed coronal hole stream continues. Conditions should
decline to mostly unsettled by the third day.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 28 Feb till 02 Mar
| M-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 27 Feb 118 Prognoserat 28 Feb-02 Mar 123/125/128 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 143
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 26 Feb 012/016 Förväntat Afr/Ap 27 Feb 020/021 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 015/015-015/012-012/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 28 Feb till 02 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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