Viewing archive of fredag, 31 januari 2003
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2003 Jan 31 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 031 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 31 Jan 2003IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 30-2100Z till 31-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were three C-class flares
during the past 24 hours, the largest of which was a C2 at 0606 UTC.
Solar X-ray images clearly show that the source for all of these
events was a new active region just behind the East limb at about
S15. A 17 degree filament near S11E02 disappeared between 0223 UTC
and 1137 UTC. All of the active regions on the disk were stable and
quiet.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 30-2100Z till 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with a minor
storm period at high latitudes. Solar wind data indicate the
presence of a high speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal
hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled tomorrow, but there is a chance
for some active periods. Effects from the halo CME of 30 January
are expected to arrive some time around midday tomorrow and should
increase levels to active through the second day. Conditions should
decline to unsettled to slightly active on the third day.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 01 Feb till 03 Feb
| M-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 31 Jan 120 Prognoserat 01 Feb-03 Feb 125/125/130 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 156
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 30 Jan 018/026 Förväntat Afr/Ap 31 Jan 014/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 010/015-025/025-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 01 Feb till 03 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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