Viewing archive of tisdag, 6 augusti 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Aug 06 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 218 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 06 Aug 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
Newly assigned Region 63 (N17E73) produced an M1 event at 05/2122
UTC. The group also produced a C7/1n at 1259 UTC. Region 57 (S08W66)
continues to be the largest group on the disk and produced a C8/1f
at 0144 UTC and a C7/Sf at 1527 UTC. The group exhibited frequent
surging and brightenings throughout the day, but the spots appear to
be simplifying somewhat. Region 61 (N09E41) showed some growth today
and produced a couple low-level C-class events. A filament near
S42W40 erupted today: the material started to rise in EIT195 images
around 1600 UTC and was visible as a CME in LASCO C2 at 1825 UTC.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. The most likely sources for
flare activity are Regions 57, 61, and 63.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to slightly active for the next two days as
a coronal hole rotates into a favorable position. Conditions should
subside to mostly unsettled by the third day.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 07 Aug till 09 Aug
| M-klass | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 06 Aug 145 Prognoserat 07 Aug-09 Aug 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 05 Aug 004/008 Förväntat Afr/Ap 06 Aug 006/009 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 012/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 07 Aug till 09 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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