Viewing archive of måndag, 5 augusti 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Aug 05 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 217 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 05 Aug 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a
C4/Sf at 0517 UTC from Region 57 (S07W53). The Region showed some
growth in the central part of the group and is a magnetic beta-gamma
region due to some weak polarity mixing in a predominantly bipolar
group. New Region 62 (S05W23) emerged on the disk today as a small
simple C-type region. The remaining active regions were quiet,
stable, and largely unchanged. There were indications of a new group
rotating around east limb at N09. A small filament near N00E35
disappeared sometime during the past 24 hours.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. There is, however, a chance for an isolated M-class
event from Region 57 over the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 04-2100Z till 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase
to mostly unsettled with some isolated active periods is expected on
the second and third days in response to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 06 Aug till 08 Aug
| M-klass | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 05 Aug 142 Prognoserat 06 Aug-08 Aug 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 04 Aug 012/016 Förväntat Afr/Ap 05 Aug 007/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 007/012-012/015-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 06 Aug till 08 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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