Viewing archive of torsdag, 1 augusti 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Aug 01 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 213 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 01 Aug 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 31-2100Z till 01-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 44 (S21W62)
produced a C6/Sf flare at 01/1707 UTC. Region 44 appeared to be
relatively stable maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
Region 50 (S08W45) was very active, producing seven C-Class events.
The largest of these events was a C5/Sf flare at 01/0520 UTC.
Region 39(S15W58) continues to show gradual decay and has simplified
to a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Two new regions were
numbered today: Region 57 (S08E02) and Region 58 (S05E72).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 39, Region 44, and Region 50 have
the potential for M-class events. Region 39 and Region 50 have a
chance of producing a major flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 31-2100Z till 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with one period
of minor storm conditions. A shock passage was observed by the
NASA/ACE spacecraft at 01/0425 UTC and a corresponding 26 nT sudden
impulse was recorded at 01/0511 UTC on the Boulder magnetometer.
This sudden impulse was followed by active to minor storm
conditions.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A negative polarity coronal hole
is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on day two of the
forecast period. There is a chance of active conditions due to the
effects of the coronal hole.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 02 Aug till 04 Aug
| M-klass | 75% | 65% | 55% |
| X-klass | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 01 Aug 193 Prognoserat 02 Aug-04 Aug 185/180/170 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 167
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 31 Jul 006/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 01 Aug 017/020 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 010/015-012/010-012/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 02 Aug till 04 Aug
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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